docs: record per-epoch Apple re-run of fallback-excluded FL signal - #318
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The open question in the FL/RERA record asked whether the inverse FL-vs-Apple-BD relation was fallback-related. Per-epoch runs show it is intrinsic to the rule-matched fl_class_ge4_pct prevalence metric, the fallback-excluded RERA proxy has no within-epoch signal (retracting the full-range -0.128 pointer as an epoch confound), and Apple BD disagrees with Apple sleep efficiency about high-FL nights. No code change.
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Appends a dated entry to the decision log in
docs/fl-rera-validation.mdand rewrites the open question. Documentation only; no analysis or reporting code changes.The previous entry left a pointer that the fallback-excluded FL signal was more inversely related to Apple breathing disturbance over the full date range (ρ −0.128). Re-running per constant-settings epoch (12 Rx periods ≥10 days, via
validate-appleandsweep-thresholds --target apple --include-fallback 1,0with production knobs pinned) shows:fl_class_ge4_pctspecifically, which is already rule-matched-only by construction, so it was never a fallback artefact (9/12 epochs negative; P11 −0.44, P14 −0.72).rera_indexlean positive in the two largest APAP epochs while FL prevalence is flat.fl_class_ge4_pctvs Apple sleep efficiency leans negative (8/12), so high-FL nights have worse sleep efficiency yet fewer Apple BD — Apple's own signals disagree, making Apple-BD construct mismatch the leading explanation.rera_indexvs Apple awake seconds is positive in 8/12 epochs (P20 +0.47 p=0.025; P21 +0.35 p=0.043).The open question narrows to why rule-matched FL prevalence inversely tracks Apple BD while the RERA proxy does not, with the denominator test and Apple sleep efficiency / awake seconds as the next anchors.