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docs: record per-epoch Apple re-run of fallback-excluded FL signal - #318

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docs: record per-epoch Apple re-run of fallback-excluded FL signal#318
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Appends a dated entry to the decision log in docs/fl-rera-validation.md and rewrites the open question. Documentation only; no analysis or reporting code changes.

The previous entry left a pointer that the fallback-excluded FL signal was more inversely related to Apple breathing disturbance over the full date range (ρ −0.128). Re-running per constant-settings epoch (12 Rx periods ≥10 days, via validate-apple and sweep-thresholds --target apple --include-fallback 1,0 with production knobs pinned) shows:

  • The inverse relation belongs to fl_class_ge4_pct specifically, which is already rule-matched-only by construction, so it was never a fallback artefact (9/12 epochs negative; P11 −0.44, P14 −0.72).
  • The fallback-excluded RERA proxy has no within-epoch signal (5 neg / 5 pos / 2 undefined, most epochs < 50 events). The full-range −0.128 was an epoch confound and is retracted.
  • The two SNORE instruments diverge: the run-based proxy and rera_index lean positive in the two largest APAP epochs while FL prevalence is flat.
  • fl_class_ge4_pct vs Apple sleep efficiency leans negative (8/12), so high-FL nights have worse sleep efficiency yet fewer Apple BD — Apple's own signals disagree, making Apple-BD construct mismatch the leading explanation.
  • rera_index vs Apple awake seconds is positive in 8/12 epochs (P20 +0.47 p=0.025; P21 +0.35 p=0.043).

The open question narrows to why rule-matched FL prevalence inversely tracks Apple BD while the RERA proxy does not, with the denominator test and Apple sleep efficiency / awake seconds as the next anchors.

The open question in the FL/RERA record asked whether the inverse
FL-vs-Apple-BD relation was fallback-related. Per-epoch runs show it is
intrinsic to the rule-matched fl_class_ge4_pct prevalence metric, the
fallback-excluded RERA proxy has no within-epoch signal (retracting the
full-range -0.128 pointer as an epoch confound), and Apple BD disagrees
with Apple sleep efficiency about high-FL nights. No code change.
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wpfleger96 marked this pull request as ready for review August 30, 2026 15:52
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wpfleger96 merged commit 50a865a into main Aug 30, 2026
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wpfleger96 deleted the will/apple-per-epoch-fallback branch August 30, 2026 15:52
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