Adapt lower bounds of VRE 2025 capacities and add upper bounds based on 2024 IRENA capacities and 2022-2024 observed trend

[fschreyer]

Purpose of this PR

Improve near-term trends of VRE capacities.

• add upper bounds to VRE capacities in 2025 based on 2024 historical capacities + 2 * 2022-2024 trend, but at least 10% higher than 2024
• adapt lower bounds to VRE capacities in 2025 based on 2024 historical capacities + 0.5 2022-2024 trend, but at least 2024 capacity

This addresses: https://github.com/remindmodel/development_issues/issues/779.

Type of change

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Parts concerned

• ☑️ GAMS Code
• ◻️ R-scripts
• ◻️ Documentation (GAMS incode documentation, comments, tutorials)
• ☑️ Input data / CES parameters
• ◻️ Tests, CI/CD (continuous integration/deployment)
• ◻️ Configuration (switches in main.gms, default.cfg, and scenario_config*.csv files)
• ◻️ Other (please give a description)

Impact

• ◻️ Bug fix
• ◻️ Refactoring
• ◻️ New feature
• ◻️ Change of parameter values or input data (including CES parameters)
• :ballot_box_with_check Minor: change (default scenarios show only small differences)
• ◻️ Fundamental change of results of default scenarios

Checklist

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• I executed the automated model tests (make test) after my final commit and all tests pass (FAIL 0)
• I adjusted the reporting in remind2 if and where it was needed
• I adjusted the madrat packages (mrremind and other packages involved) for input data generation if and where it was needed
• My code follows the coding etiquette
• I explained my changes within the PR, particularly in hard-to-understand areas
• I checked that the in-code documentation is up-to-date
• I adjusted forbiddenColumnNames in readCheckScenarioConfig.R in case the PR leads to deprecated switches
• I updated the CHANGELOG.md correctly (added, changed, fixed, removed, input data/calibration)

Further information (optional)

• Runs with these changes are here:
• Comparison of results (what changes by this PR?):

/p/tmp/schreyer/Modeling/remind/Current/compScen-NPi_RE2025Up-2026-07-06_08.52.14-H12-to2050.pdf

[robertpietzcker]

couldn't you immediately add a new lower bound as well for 2025?

vm_cap.lo(t,regi,teVRE(te),"1") $ pm_histCapYearly("2024",regi,te) = max(pm_histCapYearly("2024",regi,te)
+ 0.5
* ( pm_histCapYearly("2024",regi,te)
- pm_histCapYearly("2022",regi,te) ) / 2,
0.95 * pm_histCapYearly("2024",regi,te)
);

[fschreyer]

couldn't you immediately add a new lower bound as well for 2025?

vm_cap.lo(t,regi,teVRE(te),"1") $ pm_histCapYearly("2024",regi,te) = max(pm_histCapYearly("2024",regi,te) + 0.5 * ( pm_histCapYearly("2024",regi,te) - pm_histCapYearly("2022",regi,te) ) / 2, 0.95 * pm_histCapYearly("2024",regi,te) );

Yeah, good point. Doing a test run now.

Was a bit hesitant at first because this is assuming some 2024-2025 growth everywhere, but that's likely reasonable with renewables and based on recent growth rates.