Post-AGI Planning

A living, data-driven civilization forecast and long-form guide to the post-AGI transition. The REHOBOAM timeline spans 2026–2040 across six domains, plus an undated, dependency-gated post-superintelligence horizon, and is published at peterxing.com.

Evidence contract

Every prediction is accounted for in exactly one of three channels. A cited prediction carries authoritative news or research published inside a 14-day currency window. Where nothing qualifies inside that window, a context entry may carry the most recent genuinely-supporting article found at any age — held to the identical relevance bar, verified by the same live fetch and verbatim quote, and rendered with its true publication date and age so dated background can never be read as current evidence. Everything else is published as an explicit uncited record carrying its reason and search statement — never left blank, never padded with a weaker source, never stretched to improve the ratio.

Today that is 6 cited, 5 carrying dated background and 92 uncited of 103, drawn from 6 distinct publishers. Those numbers are generated rather than asserted: the page renders them from signals.json, so they cannot drift from what actually shipped.

A citation must clear all of the following, at review time and again at publish time:

• live fetch of the URL, HTTP 200 on the resolved address after redirects;
• headline, publisher, byline and date extracted from the fetched page, not from a feed;
• an exact verbatim supporting quote located in that extracted text;
• a SHA-256 of the extracted main text re-checked against the reviewed hash;
• rejection of aggregators, shorteners, press-release mills and content farms;
• no auto-approval — every mapping is reviewed by a human before it can publish.

refresh-signals.js exits nonzero and leaves the last complete signals.json untouched if any of this fails. Prediction search fallbacks are forbidden: signals.search must remain empty.

Browser discovery (2026-08-18)

An uncited record used to say "No authoritative source published in the last 14 days was found." That reads as a statement about the world, and it was partly a statement about the transport: discovery reached publishers only through a fixed feed harvest, and every candidate was read with a plain HTTPS GET. A publisher with no feed for the relevant section, or one that refuses non-browser clients, was never seen — not judged and rejected, simply unreachable.

if you can't match any news sources or x posts, try using computer use to scrape the information through browsing. include this in the daily automations

browse-evidence.js closes that gap by looking the way a reader looks — a real browser, on the publishers' own on-site search pages — and browse-transport.js renders a candidate so a JavaScript-only or challenge-walled article can be read at all. What it deliberately does not do is make anything new admissible:

Unchanged (imported whole)	Changed
GATE 1 curated subject + GATE 2 distinctive term, at DEFAULT_MIN_SCORE	what can be reached
source-quality gate, extraction chain, verbatim quote, text hash	how a page is read
the 14-day currency window, enforced at the producer	nothing
promotion into news-evidence.js stays a human act	nothing

• It cannot publish. It writes proposals; nothing in the build reads that file. verify-browse-evidence.js asserts this rather than describing it.
• It cannot admit the archive. A publisher's site search reaches fifteen years of reporting, where the imported gates were built to rank a pool of recent feed items. Measured on the first working run: a 2011 primer on corporate valuation cleared both gates for a 2026 trillion-dollar valuation prediction. A 365-day discovery ceiling now bounds the channel. It is a tightening, never a widening, and it is not the currency window — the context channel legitimately carries older background, but its published sentence is "the most recent authoritative source found", and an article from the previous decade cannot make that sentence true.
• Transport is declared, per source, and fails closed. A reviewed row may declare transport: "browser"; anything else takes the ordinary fetch. The build opens a browser only if such a row exists, and refuses to verify one with a plain fetch it is declared to fail. Provenance then records browser-render+quote-match, so a browser-read citation is never indistinguishable from a fetched one.
• The search surface is first-party. Publishers' own search pages, every host already on the egress allow-list. Never a web search engine: its results page is exactly the aggregator hop the source-quality gate exists to refuse.

X retirement (2026-08-13)

This site previously required exactly one reviewed direct X (Twitter) evidence card per prediction, sourced from @peterxing's posts and reposts plus authoritative external X statuses, and backed by a private Wayback/first-party/oEmbed archive corpus. That contract is retired in full, at the site owner's instruction:

remove all references to x posts and stop using the x api for the predictions — replace and add any references based on the latest news from the last 2 weeks instead

Retired	Replaced by
x-archive.js — Wayback CDX discovery, first-party hydration, oEmbed cross-check	news-evidence.js — the reviewed, live-verified news ledger
verify-peter-evidence.js, verify-archive-corpus.js, verify-external-evidence.js	verify-news-evidence.js, verify-currency.js
verify-id.js — a live cdn.syndication.twimg.com call	deleted; network egress is now an allow-list (below)
evidence-approvals.json (sticky X ledger) and the external-evidence.js X statuses	asserted empty; a non-empty ledger fails publication
peterTotal / peterAuthored / maxReuse floors in evidence-floors.json	removed rather than zeroed — a floor of 0 reads as a satisfied gate
X API credentials and the private pap-secrets corpus	the build no longer names or opens that directory at all

The retirement is enforced by inversion, not by deletion. Reinstating X is what fails now:

• assertNoXIngestFiles() fails the build if any retired X ingest file reappears — the previous invariant rested on a file's absence, which is not enforcement;
• the coverage, per-prediction and observatory verifiers assert zero X links, zero from:peterxing requirements and zero X-owned embeds;
• any embed claiming evidenceOwner: "peterxing" or "external" is rejected by name, so a reinstatement fails as a reinstatement rather than as a generic schema error;
• the retired X hosts are listed explicitly in the egress allow-list and refused with a reason.

Surviving references to X in this repository record the retirement itself. That is the intended end state: state what went, and state what replaced it.

How it works

index.html ──loads──> styles.css + app.js
           ├─fetch──> predictions.json   (forecast source of truth)
           ├─fetch──> signals.json       (generated evidence + Reality Signals)
           └─fetch──> author.json        (About the Author)
                              ^
                              |
                  refresh-signals.js ──> news-evidence.js      (reviewed news ledger)
                                     ├──> currency-evidence.js (currency ledger)
                                     ├──> browse-transport.js  (browser re-read, if declared)
                                     └──> evidence-families.js (declared reuse families)

browse-evidence.js ──browses──> publishers' own search pages ──> proposals ──human review──> news-evidence.js

• predictions.json contains the probabilistic 2026–2040 forecast and the undated horizon.
• validate-predictions.js enforces schema plus portfolio coherence: exact/near duplicates, repeated valuation/science/AI-R&D endpoints, conventional career milestones after full automation, and unlabelled top-expert milestones after an earlier ungoverned ASI branch all fail publication. Similar later events must advance a threshold, scope, deployment stage, or branch.
• refresh-signals.js builds signals.json: it verifies every reviewed news citation live, publishes an uncited record for every prediction without one, and fails closed rather than approximating.
• news-evidence.js is the reviewed news ledger. Each entry binds a prediction to one article with its publisher, published date, date provenance, verbatim quote and text hash.
• currency-evidence.js is the reviewed currency ledger — the published half of a secondary layer of newer references. It is fed by two operator-local tools, currency-harvest.js and currency-build-ledger.js, which are deliberately not in this repository: each reads currency-candidates.json, a generated review intermediate, so publishing them would put a file here whose input nobody could fetch. They discover and stage candidates; only a human-reviewed entry ever reaches currency-evidence.js, which is published in full. A currency link must be strictly later (day precision) than the origin evidence it claims to refresh; one that is not is withheld and reported, because a same-day link cannot demonstrate anything. With origin evidence now always inside the 14-day window, this layer is legitimately empty and is reported as inert rather than as verified.
• evidence-families.js declares the only families within which reuse is compatible. A source is the resolved article URL, never the ledger row name: two reviewed rows quoting different sentences of one article are one source used twice.
• browse-evidence.js is the browser discovery channel described above. It runs against the predictions carrying no reviewed mapping, emits proposals only, and refuses (exit 6) rather than reporting an empty success. Like currency-harvest.js and currency-build-ledger.js it is operator-local and deliberately not in this repository: it imports currency-match.js, which reads currency-candidates.json — a generated review intermediate — so publishing it would put a file here whose input nobody could fetch. verify-browse-evidence.js, the executable proof that the channel cannot lower the bar, stays local with its subject, because a proof published without the thing it proves is unfalsifiable from the mirror.
• browse-transport.js is published, because refresh-signals.js imports it: it is the browser read itself, shaped as a drop-in for the plain fetch so discovery and publish-time re-verification cannot diverge. Its published behaviour is gated from the published set — verify-news-evidence.js refuses an unknown transport, and verify-deploy-surface.js holds every host it names to the egress allow-list.
• evidence-floors.json is a committed, public-safe monotonic ratchet. Environment variables may tighten a gate but can never loosen one, and lowering a registered value is a reviewed manual edit.
• pipeline-lock.js is a crash-safe advisory lock. Guarded entry points claim the tree before their first read, so nothing verifies or publishes from a half-applied state. A scheduled run that finds a live holder exits 75 = DEFERRED: it publishes nothing and never force-breaks a live lock.
• index.html, styles.css and app.js are the cacheable static shell. Forecast data is never duplicated inline; a missing sidecar produces an explicit unavailable state.
• author.json drives the daily-refreshed About the Author section.

Boundaries

Both of the tree's external boundaries are allow-lists, because both were previously fail-open.

• Deploy surface — .vercelignore excludes everything with * and then re-includes exactly the public files. verify-deploy-surface.js simulates those rules against the real on-disk inventory, so a newly added file is caught automatically rather than remembered.
• Network egress — every http(s) host named anywhere in the tree's JavaScript must appear in ALLOWED_EGRESS_HOSTS. Adding a publisher is a one-line reviewed edit; an undeclared host fails closed. Retired X hosts are listed separately and refused with a stated reason. This exists because the X API is not on x.com — it was on cdn.syndication.twimg.com, and a deny-list built from the hosts anyone happened to think of did not see it.

Credentials and any private material stay outside the repository and are never served, deployed or committed.

Local use

npm install
npm run validate
npm run refresh
npm run verify:matcher
npm run verify:coverage
npm run verify:news
npm run verify:currency
npm run verify:browse
npm run verify:surface
npm run serve

Browser discovery is run on demand (and daily), never as part of the build:

npm run browse:report                                  # which predictions carry no mapping
npm run browse -- --limit=12 --searches=6              # propose, for review only

In a second terminal, against the local server:

npm run verify
npm run verify:predictions
npm run verify:reality
npm run verify:author
npm run verify:ui
npm run verify:performance
npm run verify:interlock

npm run verify:currency exits 70 when the currency layer is entirely demoted. That is PASSED BUT INERT: nothing failed, nothing was verified, publication proceeds, and it must not be recorded as a verified currency layer. npm run verify:surface:live probes the production domains.

Deploy

powershell -ExecutionPolicy Bypass -File .\deploy.ps1

There is no build step. Vercel serves the split HTML/CSS/JS shell and the JSON sidecars as static files. Production is a Vercel Git-integration deployment, so the repository mirror is the deploy surface and the repository copy of .vercelignore is the live gate.

Security

• Credentials are loaded from outside the repository and are never served or committed.
• Raw caches, debug output, logs, .vercel, .pipeline.lock and node_modules are excluded from GitHub and refused by server.js.
• server.js is default-deny and serves only the site, the public JSON sidecars and static assets.

See REVISE-PREDICTIONS.md for the forecast revision rules.